Tariffs and Trade Wars
“Two Sessions”; One message; Is Trump aiming for a “Super Deal” with China?; The new answer to tariffs: risky business ventures and secret investments; China’s “Deepseek” Congress; The threat of China’s hacking-for-hire
Our Research
China’s War Plans
2430 Group’s director Glenn Chafetz urges U.S. and allied leaders to recognize that Xi Jinping’s deep insecurity and need for absolute control are accelerating the pressure and timeline for him to use the PLA against Taiwan—and the time to prepare is limited.
Arming Our Adversaries: The Inadequacy of US Chip Controls
US and allied export controls are failing to stop critical microelectronics from reaching sanctioned adversaries like Russia and Iran. Weak supply chain oversight, inconsistent due diligence, and industry resistance to stricter controls have enabled a global gray market for these components, undermining national security and costing American lives.
This paper analyzes the widespread availability of US components used in Russian unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), and specifically:
documents the methodology used to track critical components and their
distribution channels;presents four detailed findings that reveal significant vulnerabilities in the semiconductor supply chain and distribution networks; and
offers five practical recommendations for government and industry to help disrupt the flow of US technology to adversary states.
Why Do We Tolerate Beijing’s Belligerence?
Tom Lyons, co-founder of 2430 Group, asserts in the Wall Street Journal that too many U.S. companies have meekly accepted a general subjugation to the Communist Party’s new order.
How China is attempting to influence US elections
China is increasingly its espionage and infiltration techniques against the US in the lead up to the November 2024 election. 2430 Group summarizes some of the CCP’s most prominent techniques.
Chinese Cars as Military Threats? It’s Not Science Fiction
Glenn Chafetz, Director of 2430 Group, writes in The Cipher Brief about concerns over Chinese-manufactured vehicles and their software as national security threats, highlighting potential military applications of Chinese networked vehicles and Low Earth Orbit satellites.
The U.S. Can Provide an Alternative to China in Sub-Saharan Africa
Glenn Chafetz, Director of 2430 Group, and Ben Kallas, CEO and co-founder of Searchlight, write in World Politics Review about how China's influence in sub-Saharan Africa faces challenges exemplified by the situation in Zambia, where diverse local perceptions and the presence of autonomous Chinese operators present opportunities for Western engagement to counterbalance China's dominance in critical mineral resources.
How China’s Intelligence Law Backfired
Glenn Chafetz, Director of 2430 Group, writes in The Cipher Brief about how China's 2017 National Intelligence Law, requiring citizens and companies to cooperate with intelligence services, has led to increased international scrutiny and bans on Chinese companies over espionage concerns, despite China's denials and protestations.
Fox in the Henhouse: The Growing Harms of North Korea’s Remote IT Workforce
Glenn Chafetz, Director of 2430 Group, writes in The Diplomat about how Pyongyang has infiltrated its IT workers into contractors and subcontractors serving the United States’ largest and most profitable companies.
Business Intelligence Report: The Chinese Vaping Industry
This report provides an overview of the Chinese vaping industry, highlighting notable companies and their connections to the government of the People's Republic of China (PRC).
Chinese Disinformation Targeting Japan
This study identifies three key narratives targeting Japan that the CCP has amplified and distorted to bolster CCP influence relative to Japan.
China’s aggressive fragility
Director Glenn Chafetz writes in The Hill about the nervousness that underlies much of China’s politicking on the global stage.
When is our 9/11 Moment with China?
Tom Lyons, co-founder of 2430 Group, argues in The Cipher Brief that 9/11 fundamentally shifted US foreign policy priorities towards the Middle East. When will we have a similar reckoning with China?
How China Evades Sanctions & Threatens Global Resources
2430 Group exposed an attempt by a China-backed company, Norin Mining, to hide its connection to its sanctioned parent company while seeking to acquire an Australian private equity firm's shares of its copper mining operations in Zambia.
China, Lawfare, and the Contest for Control of Low Earth Orbit
2430 Group’s Glenn Chafetz and Xavier Ortiz argue in The Diplomat that Chinese government seeks strategic advantage in space through attacks on the Western private sector.
A Typology of China's Intellectual Property Theft Techniques
After decades of ignoring the problem, the US and its allies are starting to comprehend the national security, economic, and political consequences of the torrent of intellectual property that China diverts from foreign private companies.
Big Tech Connections to the PRC Government
Is it possible to show direct, observable connections between China’s big tech firms and the PRC government? Our analysis uncovers numerous direct fiduciary and controlling ties between Alibaba and Chinese State Owned Enterprises.
The UnderSimplified Podcast
From Aaron Brown, 2430 Group Associate founder
Aaron uses his career in the CIA, as an Army Ranger, and deputy sheriff, and now as an entrepreneur and technologist, to engage deep thinkers and experts across pivotal issues of our time. Using this platform, Aaron challenges these guests to join him in raising the quality of our collective conversation. And, if we are lucky, maybe we’ll find an easier path to travel together.