Tariffs and Trade Wars

“Two Sessions”; One message; Is Trump aiming for a “Super Deal” with China?; The new answer to tariffs: risky business ventures and secret investments; China’s “Deepseek” Congress; The threat of China’s hacking-for-hire


Our Research

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China’s War Plans

2430 Group’s director Glenn Chafetz urges U.S. and allied leaders to recognize that Xi Jinping’s deep insecurity and need for absolute control are accelerating the pressure and timeline for him to use the PLA against Taiwan—and the time to prepare is limited.

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Arming Our Adversaries: The Inadequacy of US Chip Controls

US and allied export controls are failing to stop critical microelectronics from reaching sanctioned adversaries like Russia and Iran. Weak supply chain oversight, inconsistent due diligence, and industry resistance to stricter controls have enabled a global gray market for these components, undermining national security and costing American lives.

This paper analyzes the widespread availability of US components used in Russian unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), and specifically:

  • documents the methodology used to track critical components and their
    distribution channels;

  • presents four detailed findings that reveal significant vulnerabilities in the semiconductor supply chain and distribution networks; and

  • offers five practical recommendations for government and industry to help disrupt the flow of US technology to adversary states.

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The U.S. Can Provide an Alternative to China in Sub-Saharan Africa

Glenn Chafetz, Director of 2430 Group, and Ben Kallas, CEO and co-founder of Searchlight, write in World Politics Review about how China's influence in sub-Saharan Africa faces challenges exemplified by the situation in Zambia, where diverse local perceptions and the presence of autonomous Chinese operators present opportunities for Western engagement to counterbalance China's dominance in critical mineral resources.

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How China’s Intelligence Law Backfired

Glenn Chafetz, Director of 2430 Group, writes in The Cipher Brief about how China's 2017 National Intelligence Law, requiring citizens and companies to cooperate with intelligence services, has led to increased international scrutiny and bans on Chinese companies over espionage concerns, despite China's denials and protestations.

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The UnderSimplified Podcast

From Aaron Brown, 2430 Group Associate founder​

Aaron uses his career in the CIA, as an Army Ranger, and deputy sheriff, and now as an entrepreneur and technologist, to engage deep thinkers and experts across pivotal issues of our time. Using this platform, Aaron challenges these guests to join him in raising the quality of our collective conversation.  And, if we are lucky, maybe we’ll find an easier path to travel together.

Listen on Spotify or iTunes.