Tariffs and Trade Wars

“Two Sessions”; One message; Is Trump aiming for a “Super Deal” with China?; The new answer to tariffs: risky business ventures and secret investments; China’s “Deepseek” Congress; The threat of China’s hacking-for-hire


Our Research

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The end of nonproliferation?

Glenn Chafetz, director of 2430 Group, and Zachary Davis, author and former intelligence analyst, warn in this Defense One that the Trump administration's shift towards unilateral foreign policy is undermining nuclear nonproliferation, prompting more countries to pursue nuclear weapons. This will increase global instability and conflict, offering no clear benefits for U.S. security.

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China’s War Plans

2430 Group’s director Glenn Chafetz urges U.S. and allied leaders to recognize that Xi Jinping’s deep insecurity and need for absolute control are accelerating the pressure and timeline for him to use the PLA against Taiwan—and the time to prepare is limited.

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The U.S. Needs a More Accurate Estimate of China’s Commercial Espionage 

2430 Group Director Glenn Chafetz contends that the true value of Chinese IP theft from the US private sector every year is not $225-$600 billion, but north of $5.7 trillion, because the lower numbers ignore undetected and unreported thefts. Furthermore, by incorrectly relying on the faulty lower numbers, US managers grossly misconceive their risk and thus fail to take action to secure market share, higher revenues, and profits. Taking these actions is not just good counterintelligence; it's smart business.

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The U.S. Can Provide an Alternative to China in Sub-Saharan Africa

Glenn Chafetz, Director of 2430 Group, and Ben Kallas, CEO and co-founder of Searchlight, write in World Politics Review about how China's influence in sub-Saharan Africa faces challenges exemplified by the situation in Zambia, where diverse local perceptions and the presence of autonomous Chinese operators present opportunities for Western engagement to counterbalance China's dominance in critical mineral resources.

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How China’s Intelligence Law Backfired

Glenn Chafetz, Director of 2430 Group, writes in The Cipher Brief about how China's 2017 National Intelligence Law, requiring citizens and companies to cooperate with intelligence services, has led to increased international scrutiny and bans on Chinese companies over espionage concerns, despite China's denials and protestations.

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Russia and China are part of the same problem for the United States

According to 2430 Group’s director, Glenn Chafetz, Members of the US Congress who oppose further military aid for Ukraine often seek to justify their position by claiming that China rather than Russia presents a greater danger to the United States. They argue that the rise of China means it is in American interests to accommodate Russia, while it should be up to Europe to shoulder the burden of Ukrainian security.

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The UnderSimplified Podcast

From Aaron Brown, 2430 Group Associate founder​

Aaron uses his career in the CIA, as an Army Ranger, and deputy sheriff, and now as an entrepreneur and technologist, to engage deep thinkers and experts across pivotal issues of our time. Using this platform, Aaron challenges these guests to join him in raising the quality of our collective conversation.  And, if we are lucky, maybe we’ll find an easier path to travel together.

Listen on Spotify or iTunes.